The growth rate of Chinese auto market in 2015 is estimated

2019-09-12 作者:配件信息   |   浏览(200)





As usual, the demand of auto market in January should be the highest. Many customers who have purchasing plan will buy cars after getting year-end bonus. But this year is different. As the research shows, the sales of passenger cars in January 2015 was as bad as September 2014, holding the line on month-on-month basis and increasing by 10% on year-on-year basis. The growth less than 10% of passenger car market will be common in the future.

Chinese auto sales growth might no longer be over 10% in the future, which means the market return rational.

The share of Chinese self-owned brand automobiles declines obviously while Chinese automobile market, which is biggest in the world, increases rapidly.

Chinese auto enterprises have made great efforts to export automobile made in China to America but strict discharge policy and authentication standard are the biggest obstacles for Chinese auto brands. At present, Geely auto group is expected to realize this dream by purchasing Sweden auto brand Volvo. As foreign media report, Volvo auto is preparing to export automobiles made in China to America on a large scale and will be 1st auto enterprise to do this.

In January, China Automotive Industry Association had mentioned the growth rate of Chinese auto market would be around 7% as same as Chinese GDP and the sales volume would be 25,130,000, among which domestic sales volume would be 24,270,000 and exporting sales volume would be 860,000. The related data shows the production and sales volumes were 23,722,900 and 23,491,900 in 2014, increasing by 7.3% and 6.9% on year-on-year basis. The growth rates of production and sales in 2014 declined by 7.5% and 7% on year-on-year basis. Chinese Automotive Technology & Research Center was more confident for auto market in 2015 and thought the growth rate would be 9% due to subsidy policy quitted and new energy vehicle accepted. Many securities dealers also thought the growth rate would be between 7% and 9%. Auto enterprises are also cautious about the growth. The sales target of Beijing Hyundai in 2015 is 1.16 million and growth rate is 3.5. The data for Toyota are 1.1 million and 6.8%. 2 million and 10% are the target for Shanghai Volkswagen.

On Jan. 12nd, China Automotive Industry Association had released auto production and sales data. In the past year, the sales volume of Chinese auto were 23,491,900, increasing by 6.86% on year-on-year basis. According to the forecast of China Automotive Industry Association, the sales volume of Chinese auto in 2015 will be 25,130,000, increasing by 7% on year-on-year basis.

According to the data of China Automotive Industry Association, the production and sales volumes of Chinese automobiles both exceeded 23,000,000 and ranked top 1 in the world for continuous 6 years. The sales volume of self-owned passenger cars were 7,573,300, occupying 38.44% of total passenger cars volume and declining by 2.14% on year-on-year basis.

The senior vice president of marketing, sales and service in Volvo auto group, Alan Weiser told reporter the model exported to America is S60L which is being sold in Chinese market. The model is manufactured in Volvo base in Chengdu.

Many research institutions forecast the growth rate of Chinese economy will keep 7% which is the lowest during past few years. Auto market enters into stable stage due to slow GDP growth. Customers tend to be more rational due to structural adjustment of macro economy, low demand and continuous deflation, which is a bad news for auto market. Auto enterprises will use all skills to response, among which new cars are most useful. As reporters analyses, there had been 36 new cars during past January. There will be more than 30 important SUV models and China Automotive Industry Association forecasts the sales volume of SUV will be 5,100,000 and the growth rate will be 25%. The effect of policy won't be as big as past few years.

金沙贵宾会,Many auto enterprises had also reduced their target. The growth target of Toyota and Shenlong etc. in 2015 is only the half of the data in

After the worldwide financial crisis in 2008, Chinese government introduced some polices in automobile industry such as taking cars to the countryside and purchase tax exemption, which lead the boom of self-owned brands automobile market.

Alan Weiser said S60L received excellent feedback from American distributors so they use this model to develop American market. Volvo hopes to realize its global renaissance by this model which has good public praise in local market. American market was biggest market for Volvo auto. According to public data, the sales of Volvo auto in China were 61,000 in 2013, increasing by 45.6% on year-on-year basis and the sales in America declined by 10% on year-on-year basis, reached only 61,200. Volvo hopes to reduce the cost in American market by exporting automobiles made in China to America. Some points of view think Chinese low cost and scale production are helpful for Volvo auto's cost control and renaissance in American market.

This stable growth of auto market has both advantage and disadvantage for distributors. The advantage is the stock pressure for distributors will be less but the stock reserving will be more difficult at the same time. This situation will be helpful for market price and enterprise operation. The disadvantage is the price-off promotions will be less effective due to stable demand of auto market in peak period. Besides, this growth raises requirements of operation capacity for distributors.

  1. Beijing Hyundai’s growth target is only 3.5%, less than the half of 8.6% in 2014.

Industry analysts think this prosperity of market isn't rational and the market share of self-owned brands increased less after those policies quit and got a hard hit with the addition of new negative factors such as foreign brands entering economy models and the policy of traffic & purchase controls in Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen.

Alan Weiser says American & Chinese markets are both important for Volvo and will help us to reach the global sales goal of 800,000 in 2020. He also says Volvo will expand the distributors in American market and increase the support for distributors. Volvo auto also considers to export spare parts with low cost to American market.

China Automotive Industry Association predicts the sales volume of saloon car will be 12,510,000 and the growth rate will be 1% in 2015. This data for SUV and MPV are 5,100,000, 25% and 2,580,000 and 35%. 1,060,000 and -20% are the data for multi-purpose passenger cars. The total sales volume of passenger car in 2015 will be around 21,250,000 and the growth rate will be 8%./

Behind the slower growth, we can see the adjust process of product structure and brand image.The related data shows many auto enterprises including Beijing Hyundai, Toyota, Shenlong auto and BMW are still challenging higher sales volume target but the growth is all less than the data of last year.

The exporting situation of Chinese self-owned brand automobiles is also not optimistic. Industry analysts think the development of Chinese self-owned brand automobiles has made great progress during past 10 years but the brand competitiveness should be improved to face the difficulties from domestic and overseas areas. As known, the complete technology research and development system has been established in major auto manufacturers but the price isn't matching the quality due to the influence of past old brand image.

Auto analysts think exporting Volvo automobiles made in China to America is helpful for not only global strategy and performance renaissance, but also public praise of Geely auto in America. Jeff Schuster, the analyst in LMC Automotive points out this is a small step for Chinese auto industry to become global player and also a aggressive attempt. Those cars exported will be examined strictly in order to meet American and global standards.

The data from China Automotive Industry Association shows the production and sales volumes are 23,722,900 and 23,491,900, increasing by 7.3% and 6.9% but the growth rate declines by 7.5% and 7%. Industry analysts think the macro economy of 2014 influences most and this situation might continue in 2015 because the macro economy will still be in the process of structure adjusting and efficiency improving.

Industry insiders point out that brand building and transformation &upgrading are highly needed and the support from government is also necessary because the thinking set of customers towards self-owned brands is not easy to be changed completely.

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